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Author Topic: Forgetting or ignoring history part 2  (Read 1477 times)

emm8

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Re: Forgetting or ignoring history part 2
« Reply #135 on: October 02, 2019, 09:29:05 PM »


Very odd Wisconsin is having a problem with a 3% or 3.1% unemployment rate  I found both   Worker Shortage?


As stated (and originally highlighted) in my post above, these lost jobs are in reference to manufacturing only.  Trump campaigned specifically on bringing back manufacturing jobs.  The overall job data figures are due to be released on this coming Friday.  I don't dispute that jobs overall have increased, but you'd have to be working 2 "Would you like fries with that?" jobs to match most manufacturing jobs salary.


Manufacturing is now at a 10 year low and the worst is yet to come.



The 10 year manufacturing low is what is more eyebrow raising. I have seen on here from some of the PSB GOP that manufacturing has been up in this Trump tax cut and trade war Utopia. I had to fact check DR but he's absolutely right on this one from every metric that I am seeing. I am curious as to how Trumpians will spin this one? If he does not fix this this will definitely hurt him some in the Rust Belt.


Add to that, this:
1. PA and WI (two battleground states, have lost the most manufacturing jobs in the last 12 months).

   
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emm8

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Re: Forgetting or ignoring history part 2
« Reply #136 on: October 02, 2019, 10:12:19 PM »


Downriver  You do realize yesterday the Dow around 10 AM was about 1% off a new all time high   You also realize that if the Dow performed normal over the years  it would be around 23000


I realize that your comment above was directed at DR specifically, and I won't deny that the markets responded to the Trump win, and tax cuts in a very positive way.  But, I'll caution you that many moves in the market are future bets in nature, and based upon assumptions that some things will get accomplished.  Yes, the markets crushed in 2017.  How much of that was carry over from a bull market that had been steadily rising for years prior, and how much was expectations for the Trump agenda?  I have no idea.  I'd guess a good portion was expectations for a Trump presidency.  But when that agenda does not attain what it promised, expectations wane.  The DJIA ended 2017 up 25% at 24,719.  Since then it is virtually flat.  It currently sits at 26,079. "Promises made, promises not kept" can be a bear (market).  ;) .  There are huge headwinds for this market, and most developed markets.  In a prior post weeks ago, I thanked Pres. Trump for that quick and much needed jolt to my 401K.  Having retired 3 years ago, the markets are my only place to increase my nest egg.

{Note: I'm not actually done with this post, and need to step away.  I'll try to finish it shortly}



Sorry to regurgitate a prior talking point, but the prior post below added weeks ago is pertinent.  As to growth, that 3% threshold is critical.  2%, 2.5%, or even 2.75% doesn't make the numbers work.  Close isn't good enough.  Then again, I remember Trump making claims that his plan could see 4% and even more, which would be great, and we wouldn't be having this discussion.  That also doesn't mean that we wouldn't be kabitzing about campaign violations, emoluments, border wall, immigrant treatment, stealing from the military budget for a vanity project, climate, or a few other things I could list...if I only felt like typing for another 1/2 hr.   ;D   


There's more to being a good President than a good economy, and even that is on much shakier ground than Trumpians care to admit (if they are even aware just precarious the economy is after the tax cuts and with the ongoing trade war).


Agreed.  The tax cuts/economy gains were based upon a GOP predicted rise in GDP to 3% from the fairly stable 10 yr average of slightly above 2%.  Without that rise to the 3% threshold, the deficit will balloon, and is already showing signs of that.  The burgeoning deficit is why Trump wants interest rates to be reduced.  It'll reduce the deficit (bond interest payment/liabilities) significantly.  But those actions also have negative ramifications for other areas of business and personal finance.  The rates should be set by free market forces, not by what will make the POTUS look better.  For that he should try more spray tan!   ;D  For people in their early 50's to mid 60's, like myself, the short term stock market gains are greatly appreciated (from a purely selfish perspective).  But I know in reality that I'm gaining while my children (now both in their 30's) will be footing the bill.  I justify all this by telling them that, with any luck, after a long, long retirement, there might be some leftover for them.  Better very late (for them) than never.  What is really occurring here is something that occurs every Christmas on a much smaller individual scale.  People go out and max out the credit cards at Christmas, and enjoy their gifts, but come late January/February the bill comes due...and buyers remorse.  You younger folks (my children included) are helping to boost my retirement nest egg.  I have already taken measures to scale back our exposure to equity investments.  Better to get out before the top (though not totally).  For this I truly thank you all.


Hey, I like money as much as the next guy, but there are other things in life of great importance to me as well.   
« Last Edit: October 02, 2019, 10:45:47 PM by emm8 »
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coach99

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Re: Forgetting or ignoring history part 2
« Reply #137 on: October 02, 2019, 11:34:29 PM »

I wish Bernie well, but this should prove he is not physically able to handle being President.  Time for him to retire to one of his mansions and enjoy his wealth before one of his Democratic rivals take it away to give to us poor folk.
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RyanHS93

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Re: Forgetting or ignoring history part 2
« Reply #138 on: October 03, 2019, 11:58:56 AM »

I just put out the fact that manufacturing jobs are actually up during the entire Trump Presidency in PA  I don't cherry pick and say 12 months    I get your point though

So basically you dislike the 2.6 % average growth during the first three years of Trump  That may be higher if 3rd and 4th quarter beats 1.9 %     So you like during Obamas 8 years the 1.6 % GDP Average  WOW   

I do agree if you are a long term investor the markets are somewhat flat   I invest long and short term. Short Term has been great 

Lets talk about this down the road   
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emm8

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Re: Forgetting or ignoring history part 2
« Reply #139 on: October 03, 2019, 12:54:23 PM »


emm8
If your numbers are correct that that would be 2.30 Year growth with increased rates  Pretty good I think  When you have time look at the Interest Rate Chart and ask yourself if Powell did do the correct thing   Look how it stayed flat for Obama  I believe every year in office  Then look how fast and aggressive he raised 



Emm8 
Any thought on the federal reserve rate chart  In no way do I blame Powell but I do think he increased to fast


Without looking up the charts you referenced, I will leave you with this:

I don't believe that the FOMC did anything but what they are/were tasked with doing...make a judgement using specific data at a specific point in time.  I also don't believe that you can make any comparison as to a decision made from 2008 thru 2016 vs one in 2019.  Two completely different national and global economic circumstances, two completely different sets of data.  Heck, two different people running the FOMC (this one appointed by Trump), and I'm not sure of the overlap of the overall decision making group.  How many are new vs how many are still around?  Don't know.  Don't care.  Hindsight revelations about the right or wrongs is why I watch the business channel.  If your trying to imply (as Trump has) that there's a "but we like Obama and want to help him out" vs well...you know the reciprocal, then I'm not on that ship.  I don't subscribe to the deep state conspiracy stuff.  I don't believe that the NSA, CIA, FBI, state/local police, and certainly not the FOMC are conspiratorial in nature.  I won't deny (nor have any proof) that there have/haven't been a few rogues in any of the aforementioned governmental entities over long periods of time.

As to the specific question on the raising of the rate .50 previously.  In hindsight, should they have raised it .50?  Should they have raised it .25?  Should they have left it alone, or even dropped it .25?  I've got no answers for you.  I wasn't privy to all the same data, nor did they ask me to vote, so I can't applaud or condemn them for their decisions.  Based upon the fact that they're backtracking now, one might be inclined to say they jumped the gun on raising rates.  I'm sure if they invited me to come and let them explain all the data, and their reasoning, that I'd not be able to refute their decision(s).
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Downriver

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Re: Forgetting or ignoring history part 2
« Reply #140 on: October 03, 2019, 01:12:12 PM »

The United States plans to impose import tariffs on $7.5 billion worth of European-made goods as soon as October 18.   That certainly won't help. 

The manufacturing sector has contracted for two straight months, hurt by the ongoing trade war with China and slowing global demand. But the services sector is by far the largest American industry. Although still growing, it is just barely expanding, according to ISM: The non-manufacturing index for September fell to 52.6, compared with 55 expected.  This is an area that when it falls below 50 causes major economic issues.
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emm8

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Re: Forgetting or ignoring history part 2
« Reply #141 on: October 03, 2019, 01:56:07 PM »


I just put out the fact that manufacturing jobs are actually up during the entire Trump Presidency in PA  I don't cherry pick and say 12 months    I get your point though

So basically you dislike the 2.6 % average growth during the first three years of Trump  That may be higher if 3rd and 4th quarter beats 1.9 %     So you like during Obamas 8 years the 1.6 % GDP Average  WOW   


I ain't cherry picking anything.  It wasn't my report, and I didn't pick the time frame either.  It was the government ISM report.  It wasn't a CNBC/Bloomberg vs "Faxe News" report either.  Where they get their data, how long the time period, etc...(they didn't consult me about what input I thought should make up the report).  Although, if they had, I'm sure I'd have insisted on being paid handsomely for my contributions!   8)

The second part of your query to me I'm guessing was just you touche'ing my sarcasticity (you'll have to grant me artistic license in the making up of my own dictionary  ;D, but hopefully you get the jist).  I see what you're doing there.  Well played my PSB friend!  Very Trump'ish (see disclaimer directly above) of you, if I might add.  But obviously your being facetious.  How could I dislike the 2.6% vs my supposed preferred Obama'ish (see disclaimer directly above) 1.6%?  The discussion was directly in response to the fact that the TAX act was mathematically based upon achieving a 3% GDP minimum (not even 2.9%).  That is GOP speak, not mine.  That was their bottom line premise for it to work without increasing the deficit, but that was also supposedly an easy floor to reach under this plan.  Hell, per Trump, 4%, even 5% should be a cakewalk.  Remember "Trade wars are easy!  I'm a deal maker.  That's what I do!"?  And, "I'm the only one who can do this!"?

That said, whether GPD is 1%, 3%, or 5% my day to day life won't be majorly impacted.  Hell, it's not like I'm going to drink any less beer, eat fewer Cheetos, (or lose any of my "400 lbs, or sit on my bed in my underwear with my keyboard in New Jersey") any less than I do now.  ;)  Same was true when I/we lost 35% of our retirement portfolio during the financial crisis.  I'm not a 1 issue voter.
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emm8

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Re: Forgetting or ignoring history part 2
« Reply #142 on: October 03, 2019, 02:52:25 PM »

The United States plans to impose import tariffs on $7.5 billion worth of European-made goods as soon as October 18.   That certainly won't help. 

The manufacturing sector has contracted for two straight months, hurt by the ongoing trade war with China and slowing global demand. But the services sector is by far the largest American industry. Although still growing, it is just barely expanding, according to ISM: The non-manufacturing index for September fell to 52.6, compared with 55 expected.  This is an area that when it falls below 50 causes major economic issues.

One of the basic tenets of the TAX ACT was based upon capital expenditures.  It was supposed to spur massive purchases of property, plants, and equipment in exchange for a huge tax break.  That, in turn, was to provide the impetus to increase employment numbers, and hopefully increase individual incomes.  There aren't any CEO's out there that aren't investing in these items because they're holding out for a decrease of .25%, .50%, or even 1% in interest rates.  These people are holding off because they're not comfortable with the economic instability that comes with idiotic tweets and rants that are muddying the economic landscape on an hourly basis.  Can they invest/build in China/Mexico/Canada,etc...or can't they?  Is this situation going to last a week, a month, a year(s)?  Any CEO who feels comfortable investing their company's assets in this environment isn't worth his salt.  That's why they (whoever "they" are) say "When America sneezes, the rest of the world catches cold!"  Well right now, America has also caught a fever, and it's effecting the entire economic universe.  Their (CEO's) direction should, for the most part, be of a "keeping their powder dry nature" until the waters clear.  And that's what most are doing.  This economy is not "great, or the greatest" as the white house on an hourly basis wants to promote.  If it were, there would be no justification for lowering interest rates at all.  If this climate persists much longer, it will most likely become a self fulfilling prophecy, and rates will surely tumble.  The constant drone from this white house about a need for lower rates tells me this Mexican (or should I say Chinese standoff?) is a long way from being over, and that the talks are, contrary to the presidents claims, a long way from being solved...(well that, and the fact that, the Chinese have told us as much).  The president is terrified because he knows the sides are far apart, and his shorts are bunching up as we speak.  That's why China, and N Korea want to talk now...because he's vulnerable and may do something that the next administration would never agree to.

Ryan,
When proofreading, I may have just inadvertently answered your other question to me about interest rate directions.  See the highlighted statement above.  It's very possible that when the Fed increased the rate (too soon in your estimation), that the indicators pointed to the investment landscape I referenced above.  The data probably showed that CEO's were investing capital then, and planning to in the future, but have since had a change of heart about that due to the ongoing uncertainties, necessitating the reversal downward.  Like I said previously, theses decisions are made based upon a snapshot in time, and can change in the blink of an eye, or on a ranting tweet.  Much like us individual investors, CEO's want stability to help assure them in their momentous decisions.  They certainly can't be assured of stability at this time.   
« Last Edit: October 03, 2019, 02:56:03 PM by emm8 »
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BALDWINTRACK

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Re: Forgetting or ignoring history part 2
« Reply #143 on: October 03, 2019, 07:16:11 PM »

If Hillary was president here is what I think.

The economy would be doing okay but I think energy costs would be significantly higher as she would have continued regulating fossil fuels and promoting unrealistic and extremely expensive solar and wind energy.

Taxes would be same as they were under Obama. Obamacare would be same and hemmoraging money.

We would be significantly more pro EU and NATO and very against Russia. Probably just reverse Iran and Russian foreign policy under Trump.

North Korea would still be for the most part mysterious. I think you guys underestimate the importance of Trump allowing them to show their cards. Long term it’s good for us.

All and all if you’ve felt the post Reagan era was alright I think you’d be happy because I think Bush family, Clinton family and Obama are essentially all the same. Trump and these New Democrats represent change. You may or may not want it but the glory days of the past 28 years are over one way or the other.
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coach99

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Re: Forgetting or ignoring history part 2
« Reply #144 on: October 09, 2019, 10:28:17 PM »

Man.it was hard to watch the national news today....and I doubt it was fake..see the bombing of the Kurds...hours after Trump made sure his two hotels in Turkey would be safe.  Have we not learned anything from basically just letting other countries invade and destroy without fear of any retribution?  I doubt pulling the troops was not an 'impeachable' offense, but it was a terrible decision..maybe worse one Trump has ever made.
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emm8

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Re: Forgetting or ignoring history part 2
« Reply #145 on: October 09, 2019, 11:59:14 PM »


Man.it was hard to watch the national news today....and I doubt it was fake..see the bombing of the Kurds...


I've never given it much thought before the past few years, but I've never been so thankful for the American print media and the impressive work they do (guardrails).  The TV media basically just 2 minute recap the headlines of the daily investigative newspapers, but they get most of the credit because more people listen/watch (radio/tv) than read the daily in depth articles that get printed everyday around the country.


I doubt pulling the troops was not an 'impeachable' offense, but it was a terrible decision..maybe worse one Trump has ever made.



Could be an impeachable offense, if in the coming days the conversations between Trump and Erdogan take a similar route as the strong arming of the new Ukrainian President.  Even if not impeachable in nature, it is surely going to meet with a lot more GOP senatorial resistance than the past few days has produced.  The Kurds (have never been the best of our allies), but they were willing (in exchange for our financial backing) to keep our soldiers safe in the fight against ISIS.  One of the former top military commanders of CentCom (Votel) wrote a blistering article in The Atlantic today, about the decision.  He claims the US has had only 6 fatalities in the conflict.  The Kurds have lost approx. 11,000 fighters.  The betrayal won't be looked upon favorably.  Expect the details of the calls to/meetings with the Turkish President to be next up in the long line of strings to pull upon. 
« Last Edit: October 10, 2019, 12:04:48 AM by emm8 »
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coach99

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Re: Forgetting or ignoring history part 2
« Reply #146 on: October 10, 2019, 11:04:14 AM »

It will not be much longer until the visual media is our only source of news since most major city newspapers are basically shutting down.  The only paper in Pitsburgh now only prints 3 days a week. Pushing their online editions, but trying to get indepth stories on your device is harder than the old in the hands paper you can read over and over a lot easier than trying to download again, etc.
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RyanHS93

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Re: Forgetting or ignoring history part 2
« Reply #147 on: October 11, 2019, 08:02:30 AM »

Big day for Dow Jones ????  Hope Trump comes through 

emm8  You do raise some good points above 
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yannessa_is_god

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Re: Forgetting or ignoring history part 2
« Reply #148 on: October 15, 2019, 09:58:26 AM »

It will not be much longer until the visual media is our only source of news since most major city newspapers are basically shutting down.  The only paper in Pitsburgh now only prints 3 days a week. Pushing their online editions, but trying to get indepth stories on your device is harder than the old in the hands paper you can read over and over a lot easier than trying to download again, etc.

I used to read the hard copy paper also and absolutely miss that.

I remember when I interned at KQV radio back in college. I had a good discussion with some of the team there regarding back then (not sure if they are still doing it) KDKA tv news would air a story and would then say "read more about it in the PG." While a skeptic would say that KDKA was withholding news to promote PG readership, the reality is that a newspaper could get much more in depth of a story than the 30 second blip that a local TV station or radio outlet could get into (just think about the whip around coverage so to speak on both).

With that said in the information age literally every one of these stories are out there, but I feel like people themselves do a poor job of seeking out those stories, which is problematic. For some it is not having that hard copy of newspaper, but with the news cycle the way that it is now, waiting until the next day for a story seems inefficient as well when there is a 24 hour news cycle and viewership remains high on 24 hour cable news.

Which brings me back to missing reading the paper. I remember reading the news frequently. Reading sports news almost daily. I remember looking forward to the PG Sunday Sports with the NHL and MLB player stats team by team. But that is all nostalgia as now I can with the click of a mouse find out Ryan Reaves' or Daniel Sprong's stats for example if I am trying to make a point in the hockey thread, or finding out everything said about a subject in a political thread to try to figure out what is real news and what is fake news. Unfortunately in an age where it is easy to find both facts and misinformation in seconds, too many do not try to discern the difference and run with whatever they feel like or whatever the President says or whatever CNN or Fox News or Breitbart or The Hill says, etc.
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coach99

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Re: Forgetting or ignoring history part 2
« Reply #149 on: October 15, 2019, 11:31:14 AM »

How soon with the PG tell us how their finances are improving or not with this change. I may be part of the old generation and not know how to navigate the web for the daily paper, so I don't realize how much people do this.  I am close to just cancelling my subscription since I hardly look at the online 'paper' at all.  I can buy the Sunday paper and the thurs and friday editions are basically worthless anyway. I get the Washington Observer-Reporter for a daily paper..maybe see about having the Trib mailed to me. (day late).  I am not going to go buy some expensive tablet just to look for saturday highschool results.
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